How we get to a number.
Every band on the index is built the same way, in every state, for every trade. Six inputs, no hidden adjustments, and a version number on everything so you know exactly which model produced the figure you're looking at.
Six inputs, every band.
Task time
Every job is broken into a standard, named task with a unit and a typical labor time — not "fix the AC," but one condenser fan motor, one 40-gallon water heater, one 12×14 room. The task is what gets priced, not the visit.
hvac.condenser_fan_motor → 1.4 hrsLocal labor rate
Wage data by trade and metro from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, loaded with the overhead a real shop actually carries: truck, insurance, license, and the unbillable hours between paid jobs.
Materials
Published parts and material costs, regionally adjusted, priced at the grade a licensed professional actually installs — not the cheapest SKU and not the boutique one.
Regional index
A state and metro cost multiplier moves the national baseline to your ZIP. It's a single, published multiplier, applied the same way everywhere.
band = national_base × local_indexPublished as a range
Never one number. We publish the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile, because scope, access, and the age of the equipment legitimately move the price — a single figure would just hide that spread instead of explaining it.
Corrected by real invoices
Homeowners submit what they actually paid. Verified submissions pull the band toward reality over time — it's the only input that ever overrides the model directly.
The same formula runs for every task in every state — the inputs change, the math doesn't.
What the model doesn't know.
A modeled band is a starting point, not a quote. It can't see your house. These are the things that legitimately move a real bid above or below the published range.
Pushes price up
- Difficult access (crawlspace, tight attic, tall roof pitch)
- Code upgrades triggered by the permit
- Emergency / after-hours dispatch
- Equipment discontinued or hard to source locally
Pushes price down
- Straightforward, ground-level access
- Multiple similar units on the same visit
- Off-season timing for that trade
- Materials already on-site or supplied by the homeowner